Thursday, June 16, 2011

This Is The Only Time I Will Choose A Pepsi Over A Coke!!

The 2011 Pepsi North America Cup is upon us, so let's take a peek at the contenders:

Big Jim

Sire:  Western Ideal
Dam:  Bold Pink-Big Towner
Driver:  Phil Hudon
Life Summary:  14-8-2-3
Pacer:  1:49.1 ($1,077,580)
Comments:  His sire's a monster, and so is he, so don't count him out!

Up The Credit

Sire:  Western Terror
Dam:  Cantbuymehappiness-Pacific Rocket
Driver:  Jody Jamieson
Life Summary:  10-6-2-0
Pacer:  1:49 ($173,440)
Comments:  This horse is NOT a fluke, plus he has the stamina to close.

Powerful Mist

Sire:  Powerful Toy
Dam:  Misty Speed-Matts Scooter
Driver:  David Miller
Life Summary:  23-13-4-3
Pacer:  1:50.2 ($398,537)
Comments:  He stole the show when he raced against Big Jim, so keep him on your radar.

Big Bad John

Sire:  Western Hanover
Dam:  Trulyawork Of Art-Artsplace
Driver:  Brett Miller
Life Summary:  13-11-2-0
Pacer:  1:50.2 ($320,318)
Comments:  They don't call him "Big" and "Bad" for nothing!


Shadyshark Hanover

Sire:  Cams Card Shark
Dam:  Shady Past-No Nukes
Driver:  Tim Tetrick
Life Summary:  16-5-6-2
Pacer:  1:50.4 ($605,332)
Comments:  Been stalking the win for a while now, this could be his chance to shine!


Sire:  Rocknroll Hanover
Dam:  Be My Guest-Albatross
Driver:  Brian Sears
Life Summary:  15-2-4-2
Pacer:  1:53.4 ($75,045)
Comments:  Not always in the winner's circle, but he has a big heart!

Roll With Joe

Sire:  Cams Card Shark
Dam:  Classic Wish Armbro Emerson
Driver:  Randy Waples
Life Summary:  12-4-3-1
Pacer:  1:49.3 ($227,740)
Comments:  Could be the "silent sleeper", so don't let the post position scare you!



Sire:  Cams Card Shark
Dam:  Dream of Mimi-Dream Away
Driver:  Paul MacDonell
Life Summary:  15-2-2-3
Pacer:  1:52.1 ($73,040)
Comments:  He's made it to the Cup so he could be an upsetter?

Dutch Richman
Sire:  Richess Hanover
Dam:  Fox Valley Estella-Sportsmaster
Driver:  Scott Zeron
Life Summary:  9-6-2-1
Pacer:  1:51.2 ($156,901)
Comments:  He's lightly raced and in the money 100% of the time, he's worth a look!            

Foreclosure N

Sire:  Rocknroll Hanover
Dam:  Pleasing Package A-Fake Left
Driver:  Sylvain Filion
Life Summary:  14-5-1-3
Pacer:  1:52.1 ($246,907)
Comments:  Don't let the 10 hole intimidate you, this horse has a nice stretch drive!

Obviously a tough race to call since all these horses are worthy of their appearance.  If we look strictly at best lifetime marks within the NA field, we see that Big Jim (1:49.1), Up The Credit (1:49), and Roll With Joe (1:49.3), have each raced under the 1:50 mark, but which one of these horses are still fresh?  Big Jim received his best lifetime mark on June 4, 2011, in the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes, however, it wasn't fast enough to beat Up The Credit, who placed first in that race with a 1:49.0, which ironically, is where Up The Credit made his best lifetime mark too.  This particular race had a finish of:  1. Up The Credit; 2. Big Jim; 3. Powerful Mist, with Up The Credit having the 5 hole, Big Jim had the 2 hole and Powerful Mist, the 7 hole.  That same night, Roll With Joe was also in the 2nd string of the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes, and won his division, while receiving his best lifetime mark of 1:49.3.  The order of finish was; 1. Roll With Joe; 2. Betterthancheddar; 3. Shadyshark Hanover; 4. Eighteen; 5. Foreclosure N.  Roll With Joe had the rail, Betterthancheddar had the 8 hole, Shadyshark Hanover had the 4 hole, Eighteen had the 6 hole and Foreclosure N had the 2 hole.  Now I realize at this point you may be extremely confused as to where I'm heading with all these stats, but when all is said and done, is this race similar to the Kentucky Derby, where it's almost in it's own league as far as betting?  How many times has the favorite lost the Kentucky Derby?  Dialed In was a huge disappointment in this year's derby, and we never even heard the name Animal Kingdom throughout the entire NBC broadcast.  With that being said, who should we pick for our win, place, and show ticket in this year's North America Cup?  Can we play out the race in our minds?  Who's going to set the pace, Foreclosure N in the 10 hole?  There are some variables we should look at:

1.  All horses are in the retention barn.
2.  Did any of the horses come out of their qualifying races less than perfect? (Minor ailments?)
3.  Any equipment changes for this particular race?
4.  Who has the speed in this race?
5.  Who has the best post?  Why did Powerful Mist choose the 3 hole?

While we can rack our brains with stats upon stats, when it comes right down to it, we can only guess the outcome, so here goes;

2-Up The Credit
3-Powerful Mist
4-Big Bad John
5-Shadyshark Hanover

Here's the entire card for Mohawk on June 18, 2011: Pepsi North America Cup Night

Here are some of my other picks for that night:

Race 3:  Crys Dream-Seducedbychocolate-Beatgoeson Hanover
Race 4:  Bestofbest Hanover-Custard The Dragon-Mystician
Race 5:  Soulful Delight-Blue Porsche-Sim Brown
Race 6:  Alexie Mattosie-Won The West-Silent Swing
Race 9:  Monkey On My Wheel-See You At Peelers-Pretty Katherine

Good Luck To All!!!

Stay safe, keep your hooves on the ground, and keep reaching for the wire!

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